Understanding the Factors Fuelling the Demand for Firearms in the Western Balkans

The overall aim of Understanding the Factors Fuelling the Demand for Firearms in the Western Balkans – Research Findings and Recommendations (hereinafter referred to as the Study) was to gather credible evidence to better understand the factors driving demand for firearms, as a key precondition for evidence-based small arms and light weapons (SALW) control and the prevention of the adverse effects of firearms proliferation and misuse.

The selected research findings presented on this platform are drawn exclusively from the perception survey – quantitative component of the broader regional Study. The Study encompasses a much broader scope of research, analysis and recommendations than the findings presented here. Furthermore, this platform features only a selection of findings from the perception survey, rather than the full set of quantitative data and results.

The fieldwork for the perception survey was conducted between November 2024 and January 2025, covering 6,819 respondents across the Western Balkans. The selected findings presented on this platform include the results of a multivariate statistical procedure known as discriminant analysis, which was used to assess how effectively a combination of variables from the survey questionnaire could distinguish between individuals who expressed a desire to own firearms and those who did not. The analysis showed that, based on the five variables presented below, 76% of respondents were correctly classified into one of two groups: those who expressed a desire to own firearms and those who did not.

1. Firearms possession approval
2. Experience with holding firearms
3. Approval of using firearms in selected settings
4. Perceived effect of universal access to firearms on crime rates
5. Experience with firearms in violent contexts

Perception survey methodology

Fieldwork period

26 November 2024 – 23 January 2025

Commissioned and implemented by

Commissioned by SEESAC, implemented by Ipsos

Population

Residents of Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo¹, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia aged 18 and over, based on the last available census

Sample size

More than 1,000 respondents in each jurisdiction. The data tables behind this explorer contain 6,819 interviews: 6,027 in the main sample and 792 in a boost sample of young people aged 18–30, added so that this age group has at least 300 respondents in each jurisdiction.

Sample type

Three-stage random representative stratified sample

Stratification

Geographic regions, type of settlement (urban and rural) and statistical circles; allocation proportional to the number of men and women aged 18 and over in each stratum

Household and respondent selection

Systematic selection of households at a fixed interval with a random starting point; each household member aged 18+ had an equal probability of selection (simple random sampling without replacement)

Data collection

Face-to-face interviews (CAPI), average duration 25 minutes

Statistical testing

Pearson’s chi-square tests for differences between categories; F-tests and Tukey’s Honestly Significant Difference test for differences between means

Who took part

Choose a jurisdiction to see who was interviewed. Each dot stands for 1% of respondents.

Shares are weighted, as published in the perception survey report, and may not add up to exactly 100% because of rounding. n is the weighted number of respondents, the same base shown as “n=” next to the charts. *The 18–30 age group includes the boost sample.

Notes on interpretation

About SEESAC

Questions on this platform

Short titles used in the menu and the full wording of each question as asked in the perception survey questionnaire.

Strategic recommendations

Reducing firearms demand in the Western Balkans requires a comprehensive, evidence-based strategy that addresses both (illicit) firearm acquisition and misuse.

This section presents a series of forward-looking policy recommendations grounded in the findings of regional surveys, focus groups, expert consultations, and case analysis. The proposals are designed to support public authorities, civil society groups and other partners in strengthening firearms governance and reducing both legal and illicit demand. The recommendations highlight the importance of longitudinal data systems, public awareness campaigns, trust-building in security institutions, risk-based licensing, and coordinated regional action. By integrating preventive, educational, and enforcement measures, and by aligning local, jurisdiction and cross-border responses, the Western Balkans can move toward a more secure, transparent, and accountable framework for civilian firearms control.

Focus on improving real and perceived security and strengthening institutional trust

Widespread demand for firearms is often rooted in feelings of personal insecurity, distrust of public institutions, and lingering anxieties associated with current and/or past armed conflicts. Public authorities must take proactive steps to reinforce public security and criminal justice mechanisms, particularly policing units that are visible, inclusive, and responsive to local concerns. Integrating firearms prevention into broader crime reduction and domestic violence strategies is critical, as women and youth often cite protection as a key reason for firearm interest. Police units should be trained in trauma-informed approaches and equipped to engage with communities affected by conflict legacies, social exclusion, or criminal intimidation.

Moreover, authorities could expand and publicise anonymous, safe reporting mechanisms that enable residents to report concerns about illegal weapons without fear of reprisal. These systems should be supported by rapid intervention teams capable of responding to firearm threats, particularly in domestic or school settings, before violence escalates. Judicial institutions, for their part, must ensure that penalties for illegal possession, trafficking, and misuse are applied consistently and transparently, including when misconduct involves actors from public institutions. By demonstrating impartiality and professionalism, the criminal justice system can undermine the rationale for self-arming and reinforce public reliance on the rule of law. SEESAC can support this agenda by facilitating cross-border learning, developing firearms risk indicators for police deployment, and supporting training curricula aligned with regional realities.

Promote responsible ownership and expand legal disarmament pathways

Reducing the availability of firearms, particularly illegal or unsafely held weapons, requires sustained, community-rooted strategies that blend voluntary disarmament with responsible ownership promotion. Public authorities should institutionalise regular amnesty and campaigns, supported by visible public outreach, media messaging, and practical incentives such as utility bill deductions, local tax rebates, or access to subsidised services. As evidenced in past initiatives across the region, success is amplified by ensuring anonymity, non-prosecution guarantees, and active engagement of community figures, municipal authorities, and civil society organisations. In regions with legacies of armed conflict and distrust in public authorities, locally tailored messaging and trauma-informed outreach can help overcome scepticism and normalise disarmament.

In parallel, a stronger culture of responsible firearm ownership must be built through public education and regulatory enforcement. Officials should expand safe storage campaigns, especially in rural and high-ownership areas. This can be done through incentives such as free or subsidised firearm safes and offering voluntary safe-storage certification programmes and through penalties such as randomised home inspections for licensed owners. These actions reinforce public safety norms while enabling authorities to identify risky conditions before they escalate. Legal frameworks should also adopt a more graduated enforcement model, distinguishing between administrative infractions (e.g. inherited but unregistered firearms) and criminal use (e.g. weapons used in intimidation or assault). This calibrated approach can incentivise legal compliance without alienating lawful owners and create clearer pathways for voluntary registration or surrender. SEESAC can play a catalytic role by coordinating best practice exchanges, supporting campaign design, and monitoring outcomes across jurisdictions.

Design and deploy strategic awareness and education campaigns

To reduce societal preference for firearms, the Western Balkans authorities and civil society should develop targeted public awareness campaigns focused especially on (at-risk) male youth and adults. Educational content should be integrated in school curricula from an early age, focusing on the risks to family and friends related to firearms misuse and dangerous online content. Media literacy programmes should be introduced to help young people critically assess the glamourisation of firearms in movies, music, and video games. Partnering with educators, civil society, and youth-led organisations can help ensure that messages are delivered in engaging, contextually relevant formats. Public campaigns should be tailored to reflect specific jurisdictional realities and designed to prevent normalisation and intergenerational transmission of favourable attitudes toward illicit firearms and their misuse.

Simultaneously, institutions should leverage mainstream and social media by training journalists on responsible reporting practices and engaging influencers and public figures to shape more constructive narratives around firearms, including in relation to masculinity, security, and tradition. This could include co-creating content with respected local figures—sports personalities, religious leaders, and artists—to discredit the association of firearms with strength, status, or patriotism. Regular public service announcements could promote alternatives to armed self-protection while highlighting the long-term social and psychological harm caused by firearm misuse. Messaging should be sustained, visible, and evaluated for impact to ensure long-term behavioural and attitudinal shifts.

Strengthen and operationalise firearms licensing systems through a risk-based, preventive lens

Firearms licensing in the Western Balkans should serve not just as a gatekeeping mechanism but as a proactive public safety tool aimed at identifying and excluding high-risk individuals. To achieve this, public authorities can upgrade the existing systems by institutionalising mandatory, standardised psychological assessments and significantly tightening background checks, particularly for histories of domestic violence, criminal association, risk taking behaviours, and mental health issues. Oversight of private medical institutions could also be enhanced to prevent perfunctory or falsified evaluations. Screening mechanisms should be periodically renewed to account for changes in personal circumstances. Raising the legal age threshold for ownership to 25 and considering spousal or family consent, could provide further layers of protection in vulnerable households.

Equally important is robust post-firearm licensing monitoring. Public authorities should institutionalise periodic, mandatory field inspections conducted by trained professionals to verify safe storage, ownership continuity, and ongoing fitness. These checks should be guided by clear protocols, with red flags automatically triggering further review or revocation. Local police knowledge, already used informally in places, should be formally integrated into decision-making processes. Jurisdictional databases should also be digitised, linked, and made interoperable across the police, judiciary, and health sectors to ensure real-time updates and automatic alerts. SEESAC can support these reforms by facilitating regional peer exchange, developing technical guidelines, and offering training modules to ensure a unified, risk-based approach to licensing across jurisdictions.

Strengthen longitudinal and harmonised data systems to monitor firearms demand and misuse across the Western Balkans

Notwithstanding recent improvements, the lack of standardised, time-series data on legal and illicit firearm ownership, licensing, seizures, and firearm-related violence reduces the ability to assess demand and develop appropriate interventions. Regional authorities, with support from regional bodies such as SEESAC, should prioritise cross-jurisdictional data harmonisation and improve data quality to track trends over time. Reliable metrics are essential for assessing the impact of legislation, identifying hotspots of illicit activity, and guiding targeted interventions.

Working with local research institutions, SEESAC could also lead a regional initiative to map and monitor firearms market dynamics, including price trends, trafficking routes, and enforcement gaps. This would involve commissioning targeted jurisdiction-level studies, developing a harmonised framework for tracking black market activity, and creating a central data hub to support evidence-based policymaking. Findings could inform early warning systems that anticipate market shifts as well as policy dialogues aimed at harmonising legislation and enhancing enforcement coordination across borders.

Expand online media and strategic digital engagement to shift firearms demand preferences

Shaping public perceptions and reducing demand for firearms in the Western Balkans requires a proactive and coordinated digital media strategy. Public authorities should partner, where possible, with traditional and online media and relevant civil society groups to promote accurate, responsible, and non-sensationalist reporting on firearms incidents in order to counter the glamourisation of firearm culture that focus groups and youth experts flagged as a major concern. Institutional transparency and media training is also critical. Simultaneously, social media platforms must be engaged to restrict content that fetishises firearm use, especially among adolescents. Local governments, civil society, and digital content creators—including musicians, streamers, and gaming developers—should be enlisted to co-develop anti-violence messaging and explore voluntary codes of conduct for firearm depiction in entertainment. Crisis communication protocols, activated after high-profile shootings, must also be strengthened to pre-empt misinformation, minimise copycat risks, and channel attention toward prevention resources.

In parallel, long-term digital campaigns should be embedded in institutional and donor programming to address public confusion around legal versus illegal firearm possession and normalise voluntary surrender. These efforts should extend beyond reactive responses to crises and instead offer sustained, year-round messaging that reinforces the responsibilities of ownership and highlights the risks of misuse, particularly in domestic and youth contexts. Survey and focus group data underscore that fear of crime, personal insecurity, and a sense of masculine duty drive the demand, while public understanding of laws remains low. Campaigns must be tailored to these dynamics, incorporating insights from social listening and behavioural research. Messaging should be youth-focused, emotionally resonant, and disseminated via high engagement platforms such as TikTok, Instagram, and YouTube using language that reflects local realities. When combined with grassroots initiatives and school-based education, strategic digital engagement can shift norms and mitigate firearms demand over time.

Enhance regional and institutional coordination to reduce firearms demand

Firearms trafficking and illegal possession in the Western Balkans are transnational in nature and cannot be effectively addressed through fragmented efforts at the jurisdictional level. Public authorities need to accelerate the shift from ad hoc coordination to formalised, institutionalised platforms for intelligence exchange, operational collaboration, and joint capacity-building. Harmonisation of firearm classifications, licensing standards, and registry protocols is essential to eliminate loopholes that traffickers exploit, particularly in jurisdictions with laxer controls or inconsistent enforcement. Disparities in medical screening, minimum age thresholds, and field inspection practices across jurisdictions currently create vulnerabilities that organised groups can exploit for “forum shopping”.

At the jurisdictional level, local authorities should upgrade digital infrastructure to ensure real-time tracking of firearms throughout their lifecycle, from import and distribution to final ownership and deactivation. Interoperable databases should link ministries of the interior, customs, health, judiciary, and law enforcement bodies. Regular cross-border simulation exercises, information-sharing workshops, and expert exchanges can not only improve enforcement capacity but also foster institutional trust and policy alignment. Establishing an independent regional oversight mechanism to monitor adherence to shared standards and issue public benchmarks can potentially drive accountability. Coordinated efforts such as those facilitated by SEESAC can help dismantle trafficking networks, close enforcement loopholes, and protect jurisdiction-level efforts from being undermined by weaker implementation in neighbouring jurisdictions.